| Every conflict has its economic moments and | | | | establishment. Many a criminal dabble in politics and |
| dimensions. The current conflict in Macedonia perhaps | | | | business.Hence the tenacity of both phenomena. |
| even more so.The USA and its Western allies regard | | | | Hence the bleak and pessimistic outlook for this |
| Macedonia as a bridge between Greece, Bulgaria, | | | | region. The "formal" economies simply cannot |
| Serbia and Albania. Hence the EU's plans for the | | | | compete. Jobs are not created, the educated are |
| revival of transport corridors 8 and 10 connecting | | | | often bitterly idle, salaries are minuscule if paid at all, |
| these countries. If all goes well (and nothing has | | | | the future is past. Crime and politics (one and the |
| hitherto), railways will connect Bulgaria to Macedonia | | | | same in the Balkan) are alluring alternatives.Moreover, |
| and river traffic will flow to Serbia from its southern | | | | the NLA itself is not a monolithic entity. It is more like |
| neighbours. All this is envisioned in the Stability Pact. | | | | an umbrella organization with serious and fracturing |
| There are talks of an oil pipeline across Macedonia's | | | | differences of opinion regarding the ultimate goals the |
| territory. A pacified Macedonia is fairly crucial to | | | | insurrection and the means to obtain these goals. |
| Serbia's recovery and to the prospects of the whole | | | | Roughly, it is made up of one third veteran Kosovo |
| region to attract FDI.NATO is afraid of Turkish-Greek | | | | fighters, some of them professional soldiers, who |
| clashes in the aftermath of Kosovo and Macedonia. | | | | also fought in Croatia, or in the Foreign Legion. These |
| Turkey has increasingly cast itself in its ancient role | | | | people are bitter and disgruntled by what they see |
| of "protector of the Balkan Muslims". Greece is the | | | | as the betrayal of the West in refusing to guarantee |
| only Orthodox-Christian member of the EU and an old | | | | an independent Kosovo and the failure of the current |
| foe of the erstwhile Sick Man of Europe from which | | | | Kosovar leadership to integrate them economically |
| it won bloody independence at the beginning of the | | | | into the emerging polity there. Their motives are part |
| 19th century. Such clashes are likely to destabilize the | | | | emotional and part pecuniary. Another third is made |
| southern flank of NATO and block the West's access | | | | of unemployed, young Albanians, mainly from |
| to Iraq, the Middle East, oil-rich Central Asia, and | | | | Macedonia itself. Their fighting is self-interested. They |
| northern China. This will seriously dent the new | | | | get a monthly salary and perks and, lacking education |
| "Pacific Orientation" of the Bush Administration.And | | | | and skills, they don't have much of a choice outside |
| what about the actual combatants?Albanians and | | | | the killing fields. The rest are diehard, hardcore, |
| Macedonian crime gangs (in cahoots with kleptocratic | | | | idealists who either fervently espouse a Great |
| and venal local politicians) regard Macedonia as a vital | | | | Albania, or would like to take over Western |
| route for drugs, stolen cars, smuggled cigarettes and | | | | Macedonian in a "constitutional coup" which will grant |
| soft drinks, illegal immigrants, white slavery, and | | | | them their own police force, municipalities, institutions, |
| weapons dealing. These criminal activities far | | | | universities, budgets, and semi-political structures. The |
| outweigh the GDP of all the adversary states | | | | NLA itself is not directly involved in criminal activities, |
| combined. This conflict is about controlling territory | | | | though a few of its members are. But the money |
| and the economic benefits attendant to such | | | | that finances it (from the Czech Republic, |
| control.Crime and war provide employment, status, | | | | Switzerland, Germany, and the USA) is tainted by |
| regular income, perks, and livelihood to many denizens | | | | drug dealing, white slavery, illegal immigration, and the |
| of Macedonia, Albania, and Bulgaria. They constitute | | | | smuggling of everything illicit, from cigarettes to |
| an outlet for entrepreneurship, however perverted. | | | | stolen cars, to weapons. In this they collaborate with |
| Fighting for the cause and smuggling often means | | | | politicians and criminals in Macedonia - both Albanian |
| travel abroad (for instance, on fund raising missions), | | | | and Macedonian.Being a politician in the Balkan is an |
| five star accommodation, and a lavish lifestyle. It also | | | | extremely lucrative proposition. Both Albanian and |
| translates into powers of patronage and excesses of | | | | Macedonian politicians will abandon the peace process |
| self-enrichment.Moreover, in ossified, socially stratified, | | | | if they believe it leads to electoral ruin. Given the |
| ethnically polarized, and economically impoverished | | | | current atmosphere, it doesn't pay to be a pacifist. |
| societies, war and crime engender social mobility. The | | | | Virulent nationalism is a guaranteed vote winner. The |
| likes of Hashim Thaci and Ali Ahmeti often start as | | | | re-election ticket requires xenophobia, ethnic |
| rebels and end as part of the cosseted | | | | exclusivity, and radicalism. Here lies the future. |